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2009 - Hurricane Season Extended forecast
by Miguel Machado
Analysis of the Colorado State University Atmospheric Science Department - 2009 Forecast Report1
The University of Denver’s 2009 Extended Hurricane Report is a
sign of
concern and could increase the risk profile of many companies. The
forecast indicates that we will have 12 hurricanes, of which 2
will be intense (category 3-4-5) with a 54% probability of landfall in
the US. We expect the Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC)
activity in 105.
To provide you with a reasonable forecast and awareness a table has
been provided with previous hurricane seasons that had similar
forcasts. The chart indicates that we will have a relaxed season
compared to those in 1999 and 2000, there is still reason to worry
about
risk and our preparedness to confront similar threats as Hurricanes
Katrina, Rita and Ike. No matter the season it only takes one storm
reaching landfall around you to cause significant damage. These seasons
are prominent due to their intense
storms and loss of life and property. This is not a scientific
analysis; it's simply a
guide to allow planners and managers to think about the worst case
scenario so they can begin planning.
Table 1: Chart of years with Similar Above Average Hurricane Forecasts2
|
Year
|
Named Storms
|
Hurricanes
|
Intense Hurricanes
|
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC)
Avg (100)
|
|
1956
|
8
|
4
|
2
|
68
|
|
1989
|
11
|
7
|
2
|
130
|
|
1999
|
12
|
7
|
5
|
182
|
|
2000
|
14
|
8
|
3
|
130
|
| 2009 Forecast |
12
|
6
|
2
|
105
|
|
